New silent majority against far-left extremism may help reelect Trump

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

It is said that if history does not repeat itself, it often rhymes. We seem to be going through one of those periods again.

During the early 1970s, the United States was suffering through a period of social and political unrest that had not been seen since the Civil War. Racial conflict combined with protests over the war in Vietnam saw large demonstrations and riots throughout the country. In some cases, such as the Kent State shooting, the protests turned deadly.

Richard Nixon was president at the time and was the focus for much of the anger. He was despised by The Washington Post, The New York Times and Hollywood establishment; and conventional wisdom had it that the 1972 election would see an irrevocable shift to the left. Vice President Spiro Agnew disagreed. He believed that there was a “silent majority” of American voters who would put a halt to the leftward drift of the country. Agnew was proven correct when Nixon won in a landslide in the ’72 election. Today, the building blocks of a new silent majority are beginning to fall into place.

In the wake of recriminations over both COVID-19 and the George Floyd killings, conventional wisdom again has it that the country is trending left with the usual suspects in the elite establishment on the East and West Coasts predicting the end of Donald Trump. Hard core Trump supporters don’t care about the opinion of the opinion makers, but they won’t be the only Trump voters in November. In 2016, people who would not admit to being Trump backers or Hillary haters were enough to give the Republicans the edge in crucial swing states. At that time, they were not a majority; they may be this time.

Media and Hollywood elites are sending a not-so-subtle message that a vote for Mr. Trump is a vote for evil, but many people in this country have a far different definition of real evil than the likes of Rosie O’Donnell, Stephen Colbert and Anderson Cooper. We won’t know until November how many compose the new silent majority or if one really exists, but I am ready to bet good money that there are more than The Washington Post and ABC News suspect. 

I believe that the new silent majority has three major components. The first — and perhaps most decisive — are those voters in states that have been slow to reopen and will be still unemployed or badly underemployed by November. This includes small-business owners who will still be recovering — or not recovering — from the shutdown, particularly in those states where customer capacity is limited to 50%.

A second core group will consist of those disgusted by the Democratic Party’s pandering to the Black Lives Matter movement and other far-left progressive activists who have taken cynical advantage of the George Floyd tragedy. These will undoubtedly include police and police supporters who prize law and order above mob rule.

Finally, we will have closet cultural conservatives. As in 1972, most Americans maintain a tolerant view of alternative lifestyles and world views; what two consenting mammals do in their own bedroom is their own business seems to be the prevalent attitude. Increasingly, however, the LGBTQ community has been pushing an aggressive “celebrates us or else approach.”

The recent incident in Seattle’s “Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone,” where a Christian street preacher was assaulted and sexually abused for exercising his constitutional rights by LGBTQ street thugs is the latest example of Nazi-like LGBTQ tactics. As with the 1972 voter reaction to far-left extremism abetted and encouraged by Democrats, I believe there will be a silent cultural conservative voter backlash.

If the president is reelected as a result of this new silent majority backlash, he should be careful. After the 1972 election, both Nixon and Agnew became victims of their own personal failings. That led to the left-wing reaction that elected Jimmy Carter which, in turn, led to the conservative revolution of Ronald Reagan.

The pendulum of American politics always finally comes to rest in the middle, but the swings along the way can be radical. If there is really a silent majority, it will not represent a mandate for Mr. Trump. Quite frankly, many Trump voters in November will personally despise him, but will instead be voting against the radical left. The next election will be as bizarre as the rest of 2020 has been. Republican “never Trump activists” will vote for Joe Biden and many radical activists will undermine Mr. Biden. Wild times loom ahead.

• Gary Anderson lectures on Alternative Analysis at the George Washington University’s Elliott School for International Affairs.

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