Iran-US conflict: ‘Pakistan not sovereign enough to take independent decision’

ISLAMABAD: Brig (R) Feroz Hassan Khan from Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, has said that Pakistan is not sovereign enough to make any independent decision to take sides or to stay neutral in the recent conflict between Iran and the United States given its precarious economic situation.

Brig Feroz was speaking at a Special Talk on “Changing Regional Security and Implications on US-Pakistan Relations” organised here by Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI).

Brig Feroz said that Pakistan’s top national security challenge is its economic security, without which the country would not be able to modernise its national security. He said that Pakistan’s dependency on IMF programme, financial assistance from Saudi Arabia and FATF conditions are negatively impacting the country on foreign policy front.

He observed that fraught situation in the Middle East is the ultimate test of Pakistan’s diplomacy. He urged the country to keep certain priorities including continuing efforts in the Afghan peace process, preventing conflict and war with India and remaining relevant in China’s BRI through successfully implementing and completing CPEC projects.

Brig Feroz said that those who support Trump’s decision to kill top Iranian commander argued that the assassination of Qasim Soleimani was an attempt from the US to re-establish deterrence to stop Iran from going beyond the red line. He said that there could be multiple reasons behind this killing including domestic politics in the United States or to survive president’s impeachment. Regional security and power dynamics are changing and redefining to which Pakistan must be mindful, he added. He foresaw three possible scenarios on Iran’s reaction amidst US-Iran conflict which include Asymmetric warfare (mainly using Hezbollah card by Iran), growing armed race in the region and thirdly nuclear proliferation. According to him, any one of these reactions would be a setback to the international security, and certainly would have serious implications for Pakistan.

While responding to a question on unilateralism by the US in the current Middle East crisis, the speaker said this is the era of strong-henchman who most of the time uses power to suppress the opposition, which exactly what Trump did or Modi is doing in its own country and in occupied Kashmir.

To a question on Non-Proliferation Treaty, he said that Iran will remain in NPT for having limited capacity to conduct nuclear test and continue on the path of its nuclear programme as per provisions of the treaty.

Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri, Executive Director, SDPI, said that at the moment when the situation in the Middle East is very concerning and worrisome, Pakistan needs to be very careful while weighing its options over the current conflict between Iran and the US. He said that Pakistan has to take care of its own interest first and try to play its role in de-escalating the situation to avert greater chaos in the region.

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