This first appeared in The Telegraph’s US 2020 newsletter, which is written every week by our Washington DC team giving analysis on the election campaign. You can sign up to receive it in your inbox every Thursday morning by clicking here
Donald Trump is in a bad spot. He trails Joe Biden in national polls. He trails Mr Biden in battleground polls. Two thirds of voters disapprove of his handling of coronavirus.
But that does not mean he will lose on November 3. Even a cursory glance at the 2016 campaign, when polls put him way behind Hillary Clinton throughout, should make that clear.
So what could turn the tables between now and voting day? What would need to happen for the US president to secure the second term he craves? Here are four possible scenarios…