Experts explain why Sean Miller and Arizona basketball will survive the recruiting fallout from NCAA

NORTH AUGUSTA, S.C. — Perhaps no school has been more embroiled in the NCAA’s corruption scandal than Arizona since the FBI announced its bombshell investigation in September 2017.

Yet, few schools have enjoyed as much recruiting success in that time.

From February 2018 to May 2019 — a span in which ESPN reported Arizona head coach Sean Miller discussed paying Deandre Ayton $100,000 with Christian Dawkins, Arizona suspended and reinstated Miller, and testimony in federal court implicated Arizona in several bribing instances — the Wildcats landed five-star 2018 forward Brandon Williams, five-star 2019 point guard Nico Mannion, five-star 2019 wing Josh Green and four-star 2019 big man Zeke Nnaji, all while beating out the likes of North Carolina, Kansas and Kentucky.

Then, in June, the NCAA unveiled that six programs were set to receive notices of allegations for Level 1 rules violations — the most serious infractions —  this summer.

Penalties for such violations include postseason bans, scholarship reductions and head-coach suspensions.

North Carolina State was the first school to receive notice. Arizona is a strong candidate to also receive notice; former assistant coach Emanuel “Book” Richardson, along with former assistants from USC, Oklahoma State and Auburn, have all pleaded guilty to accepting bribes from Dawkins and others.

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Experts think Sean Miller and Arizona will be just fine on the recruiting trail. (Photo: Casey Sapio, USA TODAY Sports)

The Wildcats were out watching the country’s elite talent during the July 11-14 live period, and they still remain a powerful force on the recruiting trail despite the uncertainty over what the NCAA may do. After securing a top-three 2019 recruiting class, Miller and the Wildcats are well-positioned again with a number of the nation’s top-50 talents. 

How Arizona has maintained this success despite the NCAA’s investigation and potential looming punishment is “the million-dollar question,” Rivals national analyst Corey Evans told USA TODAY Sports.

“No pun intended,” he added.

Evans does think there’s some luck involved. 

First of all, Mannion lives in Phoenix and Green’s parents did while he attended IMG Academy in Florida, so Arizona always had a good chance with both. It’s rare to have two top-15 prospects in your state, and the Wildcats took advantage of that, Evans said.

Second, Evans thinks Arizona is benefiting from a downturn of other traditional West Coast powers. Steve Alford flamed out at UCLA. UNLV is far off from what it used to be. Other than a few schools, Arizona doesn’t have a great deal of West Coast competition for elite talent.

But, more importantly, Evans said Arizona hasn’t seen a drop-off in recruiting because its brand still resonates — and Miller still has a reputation for sending guys to the NBA — as was the case when Ayton went No. 1 to Phoenix in the 2018 NBA Draft.

And long as Arizona doesn’t get hammered by the NCAA, that probably won’t change.

“Nowadays, it’s about who’s going to get me to the NBA? How am I going to be seen?” Evans said. “And Arizona has that. Arizona still is must-watch television. And they still have a track record of getting guys to the pros.

“Most of these guys they’re recruiting are one-and-done guys. So is (a potential non-death penalty punishment) going to affect those guys for their one year in college? Probably not.” 

Brian Snow, a national recruiting analyst at 247Sports, echoed Evans’ sentiment. He said that, as long as Miller is still at Arizona, the Wildcats will still be a juggernaut on the recruiting trail. 

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A loss of scholarships would hurt, to a degree. But, based on what he believes the NCAA can prove from implications during federal trial, Snow thinks the most likely punishment would be a suspension for Miller this upcoming season.

And that doesn’t affect 2020 kids.

“It’s pretty simple: No one cares,” Snow said. “The only thing recruits and parents have cared about over my 10, 15 years of doing this is stability. And right now, it seems pretty stable that Sean Miller’s going to be the head coach at Arizona, and that’s all that really matters. … That’s the concern: winning and making it to the pros. Not, ‘Did an assistant coach take money from an agent?’

“It’s going to be basically business as usual.”

Stan Wilcox, the NCAA Vice President for regulatory affairs, told CBS Sports in June that two “high-profile” programs would receive their notice of allegations in early July. The rest, he said, would be announced later in the summer.

What do the potential recruits think?

USA TODAY Sports spoke with several of Arizona’s top 2020 and 2021 targets last weekend at the 2019 Nike Peach Jam. Some were more concerned with the outcome of the NCAA’s investigation than others, but none considered ruling Arizona out.

The players were asked: How does the NCAA investigation and potential looming punishment affect how you view Arizona?

Five-star combo guard Nimari Burnett: “They cleared it up. They told me about that quite a few (times). They made sure that they made a priority of clearing it up and made sure that they prioritized me and the rest of the recruits, so that’s not an issue.”

Four-star shooting guard Adam Miller: “It doesn’t have an effect to me. It’s not even that big of a deal. I mean, if you think about it, what they’re (accused of doing) isn’t bad. It’s not a bad thing. It’s against the rules, but if you think about it, it’s not bad.”

Four-star combo guard D.J. Steward: “I’ll just have to wait to see how everything goes. Don’t assume anything just yet. Just wait until everything pans out and we get the full truth out of that.”

Five-star point guard Caleb Love: “If they get charged or something, maybe. But if they don’t, then it won’t affect it.”

Five-star 2021 combo guard Devin Askew:  “Nothing. Nothing at all. He didn’t do it. He’s good.”

Why do you think Arizona continues to have recruiting success?

Askew: “It’s Arizona basketball. Everyone wants to come out to the West Coast and play in the Final Four every year. That’s why.”

Love: “Just their history with guards and great teams. They have a great team. Just their history does it for itself. And a great coach — he’s a great coach.”

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