Biden administration back to the future in the Middle East

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

America’s European allies are supposedly giddy over our new president; however, our traditional friends in the Middle East are far less jubilant. The Biden administration is off to a bad start.

It appears our Shia enemies in the region are being rewarded while traditional Sunni partners are being shunned. My Israeli friends tell me that they are waiting for the other shoe to drop regarding the special relationship between the United States and the Jewish state. Iraqi friends of both Sunni and Shia orientation are concerned that the United States will give Iran a free hand in the land between the rivers leading to more sectarian violence as Iranian backed militias crack down even harder on the Sunni minority.

This angst is not based on mere speculation. Mr. Biden’s national security team moved quickly to disrupt the growing Israeli-Sunni partnership in the region. The administration’s stated intention of reengaging with Tehran on nuclear issues without tying that engagement to reducing other Iranian misbehavior in the region is a return to the Obama-era regional destabilization.

This was almost immediately followed by the State Department’s announcement on a freeze of arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Middle East is a region where perception is everything; when perception is backed up by action, regional actors get very concerned.

The Trump administration had come to the realization that the world’s strategic balance has changed. American energy independence has rendered the region far less critical to us than it was in the last century. The Israelis and the region’s Sunni powers realize this and are quietly moving toward a new strategic alignment far less dependent on day-to-day American engagement. Mr. Biden’s team appears to want to go back to the future.

President Biden has selected a foreign policy team of traditional internationalists who cannot envision a world without persistent U.S. involvement everywhere, even when it is not wanted or needed.

Prodded on by The Washington Post, the State Department will likely worry at the rotten tooth that is the investigation into the Saudi government involvement in the Khashoggi murder, preach human rights in the region, take the Palestinian side regarding Jerusalem and try to induce Iran to stop pursuing atomic weapons. In the process, the United States will experience an acceleration of the decline of its influence as regional actors pursue national self-interest and realpolitik.

Regarding Iran, there is one cold fact. The Iranians will still pursue nuclear weapons covertly no matter what we do; and when that they get close, the Israelis — probably in cooperation with the Saudis, UAE and other regional actors — will turn the Iranian nuclear program into a smoking hole in the ground leaving the U.S. looking inept and weak.

Meanwhile, Israel and the major Sunni states will continue to build a quiet anti-Iran coalition without us. If we pressure them over the Palestinians — who are not strategically important — and other human rights issues by withholding arms sales, they will begin to deal with the Russians and Chinese. Meanwhile, we will see combined Sunni-Israel covert action in Iraq and Syria to reduce Iranian influence. In a region where we have declining vital national interests, sometimes the best advice is; “don’t just do something, stand there”.

The United States can still play a role in the region. The 2500 troops that we have in Iraq are a bargaining chip. Iran wants them out, and we want Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Quds force advisors out. The same is true in Syria where we still have a residual force. That quid pro quo might be tied to slowing the Iranian nuclear program if we do not delude ourselves that they will ever abandon their goal of obtaining nuclear weapons. The United States also still has an interest — albeit not vital — in ensuring freedom of the seas and acting as a deterrent to other Iranian mischief in the region as well as discouraging further Russian adventurism.

Unfortunately, there is the possibility that we could again become dependent on Middle Eastern oil. If Mr. Biden succeeds in his stated goal of destroying U.S. oil and gas production, we will still need fuel for our naval ships and military aircraft. There is no way to run an aircraft carrier on solar power, and wind turbine powered fighter aircraft would be cannon fodder for the Russians and Chinese. If the day comes when we must go back to Sunnis in the region for military fuel, it will not be as regional power brokers. We will merely be customers.  

• Gary Anderson lectures on Alternative Analysis and Red Teaming at the George Washington University’s Elliot School of International Affairs.

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