2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Oscar season is officially underway. The 2020 Oscars will cap off an abbreviated awards season — this year’s telecast is scheduled for Feb. 9, weeks earlier than usual — and ET will keep you up to date with our latest predictions the entire time. Up until Jan. 13, when the Academy officially announces their nominations, keep checking back to this post to see which films are in the running for Best Picture.

What do awards season’s early shows tell us about the Oscars? Well, everything and nothing. But with each wave of nominations that roll in — various guilds and critics groups and the Golden Globes — the race for the Academy’s top prize begins to take shape. And still, presuming anyone can foretell exactly what the Academy is thinking is a fool’s errand.

So, what do we know? Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story and Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood appear to be all-but-sure things. Jojo Rabbit, Parasite and 1917 are the next best bets. Which leaves four slots to be filled by any number of films. (If the AMPAS nominates 10 films, that is. Since 2011, when the rule was revised, it has happened exactly zero times.) 

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
1917

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bombshell
Dolemite Is My Name
The Farewell
Ford v Ferrari

Hustlers
Knives Out
Pain and Glory
Richard Jewell

Rocketman
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems

Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor

America’s>

Though A Beautiful Day has been well-received, it’s worth noting the 2018 Mister Rogers documentary, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, unexpectedly missed with the Academy.

Tom Hanks, Matthew Rhys, Susan Kelechi Watson and Chris Cooper

 

Between>The Big Short (Charles Randolph), Bombshell makes a solid case for itself as the Vice of this race.

Whether the film lands the moral complexity of telling a timely story about objectionable Fox News ilk like Megyn Kelly and Gretchen Carlson who did something good and right will vary from viewer to viewer.

Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Margot Robbie, John Lithgow, Kate McKinnon, Connie Britton, Malcolm McDowell and Allison Janney

SAG Awards – Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture (Nominee)

The>Dolemite is that twofold: It tells the comeback story of Blaxploitation phenomenon Rudy Ray Moore by way of a comeback performance from Eddie Murphy.

Though the Academy and Netflix’s relationship is improving, Dolemite feels like the weakest of the streamer’s candidates here and, thus, may have to resign itself to the Best Actor race.

Eddie Murphy, Keegan-Michael Key, Mike Epps, Craig Robinson, Tituss Burgess, Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Wesley Snipes

Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy (Nominee)

Every>The Farewell, which has strong support from critics, but–

Does The Farewell have the legs? It’s distributor A24’s best bet this year, so it will have the weight of their support, but will it manage to break beyond the Indie Spirit Awards?

Awkwafina, Tzi Ma, Diana Lin, Zhao Shuzhen, Lu Hong and Jiang Yongbo

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
Film Independent Spirit Awards – Best Feature (Nominee)
Gotham Awards – Best Feature (Nominee)

James>

Mangold’s films have a track record of collecting nominations in acting and below-the-line races, but ultimately missing out on Best Picture. (For his part, his sole nomination was Logan‘s history-making screenwriting nod.)

Matt Damon, Christian Bale, Jon Bernthal, Caitriona Balfe, Tracy Letts, Josh Lucas, Noah Jupe, Remo Girone and Ray McKinnon

Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)
National Board of Review – Top 10 Films of 2019

Hustlers>The Big Short and most of Martin Scorsese’s filmography.

The main narrative surrounding Hustlers is Jennifer Lopez, who is receiving career-best raves for her performance. The film will most likely be represented in the Best Supporting Actress race.

Jennifer Lopez, Constance Wu, Julia Stiles, Keke Palmer, Lili Reinhart, Lizzo and Cardi B

Gotham Awards – Best Feature (Nominee)

Martin>Goodfellas.

There’s no question that The Irishman will be nominated. The question is whether the Netflix of it all will come between The Irishman and a Best Picture win.

Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Harvey Keitel, Ray Romano, Bobby Cannavale and Anna Paquin

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)
Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Drama (Nominee)
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards – Best Picture (Runner-up)
National Board of Review – Best Film (Winner)
New York Film Critics Circle – Best Picture (Winner)
SAG Awards – Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture (Nominee)

Taika>The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave and Green Book.

A WWII dramedy can be a tough sell, and some critics feel the movie’s message is too simplistic and its satirizing of Hitler (played as a young boy’s imaginary friend by Waititi) never lands its punch.

Roman Griffin Davis, Scarlett Johansson, Thomasin McKenzie, Taika Waititi, Rebel Wilson, Stephen Merchant, Alfie Allen and Sam Rockwell

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)
Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy (Nominee)
National Board of Review – Top 10 Films of 2019
SAG Awards – Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture (Nominee)
Toronto International Film Festival – People’s Choice Award (Winner)

That>

Only one superhero movie has even been nominated for Best Picture (Black Panther); and though the controversy over this film’s messaging and its potential to incite violence proved to be for naught, the question remains: “Does Joker actually have anything to say?”

Joaquin Phoenix, Robert De Niro, Zazie Beetz, Frances Conroy, Brett Cullen, Glenn Fleshler, Bill Camp, Shea Whigham and Marc Maron

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)
Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Drama (Nominee)
Venice Film Festival – Golden Lion (Winner)

Writer-director>

But is it an Oscars movie?” pundits will second guess themselves. For what it’s worth, there is precedent here: The original Murder on the Orient Express was nominated for six Oscars. 

Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Ana de Armas, Jamie Lee Curtis, Michael Shannon, Don Johnson, Toni Collette, LaKeith Stanfield, Katherine Langford, Jaeden Martell, Riki Lindhome, Edi Patterson and Christopher Plummer

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy (Nominee)
National Board of Review – Top 10 Films of 2019

You>Little Women was a Best Picture nominee, while the ’94 take earned three nominations of its own.

In a year with so many options, will the Academy favor an original idea over a remake? That might explain why Little Women has missed out on many key precursorawards.

Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Eliza Scanlen, Laura Dern, Timothée Chalamet, Tracy Letts, Bob Odenkirk, Chris Cooper and Meryl Streep

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)

Noah>Marriage Story is his magnum opus.

It will. Adam Driver and Laura Dern are frontrunners in their respective acting categories and Baumbach is leading the pack in Original Screenplay (where he earned his previous Oscar nomination), which makes it nearly impossible to be passed over for Best Picture.

Scarlett Johansson, Adam Driver, Laura Dern, Alan Alda and Ray Liotta

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)
Film Independent Spirit Awards – Best Feature (Nominee)
Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Drama (Nominee)
Gotham Awards – Best Feature (Winner)
National Board of Review – Top 10 Films of 2019

The>

Tarantino’s track record with the Academy has been solid enough in recent years that they will give him the nomination. The question is, will Once Upon a Time finally earn him that long-elusive Best Picture win?

Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Kurt Russell, Timothy Olyphant, Dakota Fanning, Margaret Qualley and Al Pacino

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)
Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy (Nominee)
National Board of Review – Top 10 Films of 2019
SAG Awards – Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture (Nominee)

Pedro>

As far as the foreign language films breaking into Best Picture go, Pain and Glory seems to be playing second fiddle to Parasite (below) and faces many of the same hurdles. Its prospects may end at Best International Feature Film.

Antonio Banderas, Asier Etxeandia, Leonardo Sbaraglia, Nora Navas, Julieta Serrano and Penélope Cruz

 

Bong>

South Korea has never been nominated in the Academy’s newly-rebranded International Feature Film field. And throughout Oscars history, only 10 foreign-language films have been nominated for Best Picture.

Song Kang Ho, Lee Sun Kyun, Cho Yeo Jeong, Choi Woo Shik and Park So Dam

AFI Awards – Special Award (Winner)
Cannes Film Festival – Palme d’Or (Winner)
Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards – Best Picture (Winner)
SAG Awards – Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture (Nominee)

Clint>American Sniper and the two share some DNA: Eastwood telling the true story of a struggling American hero.

Since American Sniper, Sully, The 15:17 to Paris and The Mule have all missed. That the film is embroiled in controversy over its depiction of Olivia Wilde’s character isn’t helping matters.

Paul Walter Hauser, Sam Rockwell, Kathy Bates, Jon Hamm and Olivia Wilde

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
National Board of Review – Top 10 Films of 2019

Director>the unsung hero that got Bohemian Rhapsody into the Best Picture race, and he’s even bolder and more inventive with his Elton John extravaganza; plus, Taron Egerton is proving irresistible while out stumping for the movie.

Will Academy voters assume (however reductive it may be) that they already awarded this sort of musical biopic in 2019 when they gave the Oscar to Rami Malek?

Taron Egerton, Jamie Bell, Richard Madden and Bryce Dallas Howard

Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy (Nominee)

The>

The Netflix of it all. This year’s Best Picture race is crowded enough that the Academy may vote in the indisputable nominees like The Irishman and Marriage Story but cut the streamer off before The Two Popes.

Jonathan Pryce, Anthony Hopkins and Juan Minujín

Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Drama (Nominee)

Much>

The Safdie Brothers’ films are something of an acquired taste that may brush up against the sensibilities of the Academy’s old and new guard.

Adam Sandler, Kevin Garnett, Idina Menzel, Lakeith Stanfield, Julia Fox and Eric Bogosian

Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)
Film Independent Spirit Awards – Best Feature (Nominee)
Gotham Awards – Best Feature (Nominee)
National Board of Review – Top 10 Films of 2019

Sam>Saving Private Ryan and Dunkirk did before it.

It feels less and less likely that 1917 would be blanked here, but it may or may not be worth noting that Mendes hasn’t directed a Best Picture nominee since American Beauty in 2000.

George MacKay, Dean-Charles Chapman, Mark Strong, Andrew Scott, Richard Madden, Claire Duburcq, Colin Firth and Benedict Cumberbatch

AFI Awards – Top 10 Films of 2019
Critics Choice Awards – Best Picture (Nominee)
Golden Globes – Best Motion Picture, Drama (Nominee)
National Board of Review – Top 10 Films of 2019

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